By Kurtis Archer | 2025-07-30

The European Space Agency (ESA) last month announced that it has plans for humans to be living on Mars within 15 years.

"By 2040, we envision a resilient European presence across Earth's orbits and the solar system. Expanding into space is not a luxury but a necessity and space is no longer a frontier -- it is a territory," it said in a report published on June 16.

Titled "Technology 2040: A Vision for the European Space Agency," the document serves as a blueprint for the agency's technology agenda over the next 15 years.

The ESA envisions "space bases" on Mars, offering indoor living, farming and long-term or even permanent stays.

The bases will focus on self-sustainment as opposed to frequent resupply missions from Earth.

Heat-reflective and radiation-shielding materials will be used to construct the living quarters, and plants will thrive in greenhouses with glass roofs, giving the Martian colonizers grains, fruits and vegetables.

The document expects large space structures that are no longer bound by the limitations of launch vehicle dimensions.

"Either unfolded in space or manufactured and assembled directly in orbit -- or on the surfaces of the Moon or Mars -- these mammoth constructions can be as big as they need to be," it says.

Meanwhile, robots guided by artificial intelligence (AI) will explore the Martian surface, including crater depths, caves and even subsurface areas. Autonomous machines will extract raw materials from not only Mars -- in addition, they will mine resources from the asteroid belt and comets, according to the document.

"The next steps in human exploration will involve longer stays and farther destinations. Key to the success of these undertakings will be the creation of more permanent infrastructure with increased independence from Earth," the report says.

"This Technology vision is not simply a roadmap -- it is a call to action," it adds.

An ambitious vision

The ESA is not the first space actor to propose such plans for Mars. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk aspires to create a million-person city on the planet, hoping for a constant human presence there someday.

The first colonizers to live on Mars will face significant challenges.

The planet's gravity is about 38% of Earth's, and it is not known what effects this will have on the human body.

The Martian atmosphere is not breathable, and the planet is much colder than Earth and has high levels of both solar and cosmic radiation.

Creating and maintaining the proper habitats will be no easy task for those who arrive. Settlers will have to generate oxygen, recycle water and produce food. These systems will have to be highly reliable and efficient. Solar panels will provide a renewable energy source for base operations.

The ESA's plans are especially ambitious considering the agency's limited budget, Rod Pyle, the editor-in-chief of Ad Astra magazine, told BlueShift.

The agency holds 11% of the global share in the space industry, dwarfed by the United States' 64% and right behind China's 12%.

"With an annual current budget of just under $8 billion, and a sizable portfolio of ongoing and new space exploration activities to support, committing the many billions even a modest Mars habitat would cost will be a long-term effort," he said.

"Until something like SpaceX's Starship is available at reasonable cost, moving mass to Mars will remain prohibitively expensive," Pyle said.

Challenges to overcome

Pyle told BlueShift of the complexity of landing the first crew and their craft on Mars.

"Landing an appreciable mass there is another huge hurdle -- so far, the largest landed mass has been the Curiosity and Perseverance rovers from NASA, with a dry weight of 2,260 lbs [1,025kg], and even that was a huge challenge," he said.

Mars has enough gravity to make braking through the atmosphere difficult. At the same time, its very thin atmosphere -- about 1/100 that of Earth -- is barely enough to provide adequate braking but still enough to challenge parachute design and generate entry heat, said Pyle.

"So just getting components to the surface, like habitat modules (likely a mix of hard structures and inflatables), will be expensive for years to come."

Once on the planet, the first colonizers will face shelter and infrastructure challenges, according to Pyle.

"Whatever habitat components eventually landed on Mars will need to be assembled and then covered with Martian soil to mediate the large amounts of radiation that they will be exposed to, and this will require additional mechanical assets to accomplish -- diggers, ways of bagging or constraining the soil and methods of emplacement onto the habitat."

"Additionally, once those structures are in place, an atmospheric generator will be needed to process oxygen from the Martian atmosphere (or from water ice, if available), and storage facilities to assure continued recycling and replenishment."

"The same equipment should be able to provide potable water and rocket propellant as needed, the latter for return trips to Earth."

Pyle said he was optimistic despite such challenges.

"All that said, with international partnerships, possibly led by ESA -- primarily with the United States, China and perhaps a few others -- this may be doable within a decade," he said.