By BlueShift | 2025-11-20

In mid-September, Russia's space program scored a couple of big wins, with a Russian rocket successfully dispatching a Russian spacecraft to the International Space Station and the opening of a National Space Center complex in Moscow.

Beneath the surface, however, things are not looking so optimistic for the program, which is stalling amid challenges that threaten Russia's historic place as a space leader and pioneer.

"In the ever-evolving realm of global space exploration, Russia’s aerospace sector finds itself at a precarious crossroads, grappling with engine development challenges that threaten its storied legacy," WebProNews reported September 13.

"Recent reports highlight a deepening predicament for Roscosmos, the state corporation overseeing Russia’s space activities, as it struggles to produce reliable rocket engines amid sanctions and supply chain disruptions."

Per an Ars Technica analysis, the agency is facing a "rocket engine predicament" exacerbated by the loss of international partnerships and domestic manufacturing hurdles, forcing it to rely on outdated designs like the RD-180.

Progress on the transition to new engine technologies has been slow, it says, and sanctions have limited access to advanced materials and components.

Russia’s war in Ukraine remains the chief stumbling block for its space program, according to a July 1 Scientific American report, as it has "strained Russia’s coffers and distracted its scientific and technical workforce."

Funding cuts and technical problems have curtailed plans for a new crewed spacecraft, Orel, which has been in development for more than a decade.

Initially targeted for 2023, Orel's first uncrewed test flight has been moved back to at least 2028, while its intended launch vehicle, a modified Angara-A5 rocket, is still being designed.

Roscosmos falling behind

"For decades, Roscosmos was clearly the world’s first or second-most important space program and thus a key institution underwriting the global balance of power," Bismarck Brief reported June 24.

But since 2015 or so, Roscosmos has fallen behind, it said, noting that "slow-moving reforms are not enough to withstand new live player competition."

"Russia’s space program suffers from a deficit of financial resources," the Foreign Policy Research Institute said in a July 22, 2024 report.

It also grapples with "limited access to advanced machine tools and space-grade electronics, a shrinking workforce, and low workforce productivity."

"These challenges force Russia to focus efforts on the military space activity and leave manned spaceflights and space exploration only to maintain its international status as a space superpower," the report said.

The Russian government and Roscosmos are struggling to increase space expenditures, it noted, but inflation, cost-plus inflation within the space industry, and currency devaluation do not allow them to reverse negative trends.

Roscosmos may have reason to worry about its future as Moscow's colossal spending in Ukraine -- an estimated 7.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 -- continues to eat into the space budget.

International sanctions targeting the Russian aerospace industry have exacerbated this situation, triggering a $2.1 billion dive in Roscosmos's export earnings between 2022 and 2024.

Loss of talent and funding

Once a spacefaring pioneer, Moscow has grappled with a loss of scientific talent and erratic funding since the collapse of the Soviet Union, causing it to lag behind competitors like the United States and China.

"As of early 2025, the Moscow Space Club estimated there were 8,393 American satellites in orbit, 990 Chinese ones and just 307 Russian ones," military analyst Pavel Aksyonov said in a BBC Russian article published February 6.

To mitigate this critical capability gap, Russia reportedly turned to China for the satellite imagery needed to plan and conduct its operations on Ukrainian soil.

The Kremlin urgently needs to develop new military space capabilities, and getting Roscosmos back on track could be a painful process, analysts say.

"Roscosmos enterprises have been under sanctions since 2014, which has hampered satellite production," Aksyonov said.

"After 2022, the sanctions regime tightened further, impacting the few private Russian space companies still in the market."