By Kurtis Archer | 2026-02-06

Reports that Russia may be developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) have raised international alarm, as nations accuse the Kremlin of pursuing an aggressive and irresponsible militarization of space.

Two intelligence services from NATO nations suspect Russia is building a new type of ASAT weapon to use against the Starlink constellation, the Associated Press reported in December.

Russia has considered the satellite internet provider, operated by US private space company SpaceX, an obstruction to its war on Ukraine, with thousands of low-orbiting Starlink satellites helping Ukraine defend itself.

Complicating the situation is that, according to Ukrainian intelligence services, the Russian army also has obtained Starlink terminals -- but indirectly, through third countries rather than from the company, AFP reported January 28.

Russia's alleged new "zone-effect" weapon would deploy hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets into Starlink orbits, which could damage multiple satellites at once, according to various reports.

But disabling satellites in this manner also would risk catastrophic collateral damage to other satellite systems and compromise the orbital environment.

The Kremlin's military space doctrine has evolved from early counter-space weapons development to reliance on less expensive and asymmetric tactics like electromagnetic warfare and GPS jamming.

In November 2021, Russia successfully tested an ASAT missile against a defunct Cold War-era satellite, creating countless new pieces of orbital debris.

At the time, a White House spokesperson said Russia’s behavior demonstrated its "complete disregard for the security, safety, stability and long-term sustainability of the space domain for all nations."

In February 2024, US officials said they had received intelligence indicating that Russia was developing a nuclear weapon capable of being used in space.

In recent years Russia has advanced new ways to intercept satellite feeds, jam and blind them, shoot spacecraft down, and even potentially grab satellites using a robotic arm to damage them or pull them out of their orbits.

Could weapon be a bluff?

Per the Associated Press, analysts who have not reviewed the intelligence findings say that if such a Russian weapon were to exist, its use would almost certainly cause uncontrollable chaos in space for other nations and companies.

Even Russia and its ally China would suffer detrimental consequences from the weapon’s usage, making the deployment of such a weapon highly unlikely.

"I would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that," said space-security specialist Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation, who leads the Colorado-based organization’s yearly study of anti-satellite systems.

Russia has "invested a huge amount of time and money and human power" into being a space power, she told the Associated Press.

Using such a weapon "would effectively cut off space for them as well," she added, suggesting that Russian research into the system may well be experimental rather than actual weapons-building activity.

"I don't know that they would be willing to give up that much."

Commander of 3 Canadian Space Division Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner said he is not certain Moscow would refrain from using such a weapon, pointing to previous US reports of Russia developing a nuclear space-based weapon.

"I can't say I've been briefed on that type of system. But it's not implausible," Horner said of the new "zone-effect" weapon allegations.

Western powers shift posture

Reports of a Russian "zone-effect" weapon have surfaced as Western powers are no longer playing a purely defensive game, with the United States and its NATO allies pivoting toward active space defense.

The US Space Force 2026 budget ballooned to $39.9 billion; while in late 2025, the European Union launched a 7.3 billion EUR ($8.67 billion) "Space Shield" initiative, moving toward sovereign, hardened orbital infrastructure.

The United States has shifted focus toward "Tactically Responsive Space," with a goal of being able to replace a damaged satellite within 24 hours of a strike -- a direct counter to any "zone-effect" strategy.

For the commercial space industry, this escalation between global powers has moved the risks of ASAT warfare from a theoretical concept to a primary business concern.

Spacecraft used to be designed for vacuum and radiation, but now scientists also must design for pellets traveling at 17,000 miles per hour, according to Phys.org.

The most immediate impact is on satellite insurance.

While SpaceX self-insures the Starlink fleet, smaller commercial operators are facing a "hard market." As of 2026, the percentage of insured commercial launches has plummeted to barely 20%, down from a peak of 60% in 2021.

Insurers are inserting exclusions related to war and debris into new policies, effectively making low Earth orbit a "self-insure or don't fly" zone for many startups.

Additionally, the Commercial Augmented Space Reserve model, where the US military pays commercial providers for priority access during crises, has turned companies into legitimate military targets in the eyes of Moscow.

This has created a "sovereign risk" where a private companies' stock price is now tethered to the geopolitical stability of its host nation.