By Kurtis Archer | 2026-02-18

In the heated race to establish a long-term presence on the moon, the United States and China are partnering with other national space agencies and private entities in pursuit of their ambition to build a lunar base within the next decade.

Fueled by national interests, this 'New Moon Race' is driven by both rivalry and collaboration, with private entities propelling technological innovation.

The high cost of executing space missions encourages nations to work together, but the pursuit of strategic space environments, valuable resources, and national recognition is likely to motivate competition, experts say.

Laws such as the Wolf Amendment meanwhile keep the key players apart.

The US legislation, enacted in 2011 and renewed annually since, restricts NASA and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy from engaging in direct, bilateral cooperation with China or Chinese-owned companies.

The legislation, which aims to protect US technology and protest China's human rights record, does not necessarily prevent multilateral cooperation, however.

This bifurcated approach means that several lunar outposts are likely to be established, particularly near the lunar south pole, where there are raw materials such as rare earth minerals that can be used in future settlements.

Moon bases are expected to serve as a significant step on the path toward establishing a human presence on Mars, with technology and systems validated on the moon paving the way for future infrastructure on the Red Planet.

Sustainable presence on the moon

NASA’s history with the Apollo program, which successfully landed the first humans on the moon, and its current Artemis program, which is working to return them there, positions the United States as a moon exploration leader.

Working with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, NASA’s aim is to build a sustainable human presence near the lunar south pole by the 2030s.

The United States is also leading the Gateway lunar space station initiative.

The station is slated to be built and assembled in orbit, and when completed, will serve as a laboratory for the conduct of experiments in areas such as Earth science, lunar science, heliophysics and astrophysics.

China and Russia are meanwhile collaborating on the development of the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), an autonomous base on the moon powered by a nuclear reactor that is expected to be operational by 2036.

"The project is an important step towards the creation of a permanently functioning scientific lunar station and the transition from one-time missions to a long-term lunar exploration program," per Russia’s space agency Roscosmos.

India also has announced plans to build its own moon base, encouraged by the success of its Chandrayaan-3 mission, which landed near the lunar south pole on August 23, 2023.

India's goal is to establish the outpost by its centennial of independence in 2047.

Legal, geopolitical considerations

Space policy formation is uniquely difficult because space activity is relatively new -- most nations are not yet capable of spaceflight -- and space technologies and uses are always expanding and evolving.

But policy will be increasingly necessary as governments and private companies continue to increase their focus on the moon, and as space exploration efforts expand to include tourism, commerce, manufacturing and resource discoveries.

International agreements are needed to ensure space operations are fair and peaceful, and that nations do not abuse extraterrestrial resources and environments.

Existing agreements include the US-led Artemis Accords, non-binding principles to promote transparency, safety and sustainable practices in lunar exploration.

To date, 61 countries have signed the accords, but Russia and China are not among them.

The New Moon Race raises critical concerns in the areas of property rights, governance, and international diplomacy.

Under the terms of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, nations are prohibited from claiming sovereignty over the moon and other celestial bodies.

As space law struggles to keep pace with the evolution of space technologies and exploration, new norms are expected to emerge through various bilateral and multilateral agreements, as opposed to comprehensive treaties.

Resource extraction from celestial objects raises many questions nations will have to answer together, such as:

Can any party simply show up to the moon and just start mining? Can a nation or private company claim ownership over sections of other worlds? Can countries and companies claim property rights over materials they mine from space?

Only time will reveal how humans decide to manage these uncertainties.