By Kurtis Archer | 2026-02-23

As a consequence of its continuing war with Ukraine, Russia's space industry has been forced to pivot toward military integration, domestic production, and away from its traditional partnerships with major space powers.

In place of its former space alliances, Russia has sought to deepen its ties with China and emerging space powers from BRICS Plus and the Global South, forming new alliances to continue operations in orbit.

But there are signs its space industry has been significantly weakened, and that its longterm competitiveness will be compromised, analysts say.

Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered the most severe disruption to its space industry since the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991.

Resulting sanctions removed Russian access to key foreign markets that had provided critical electronics and components to the space industry, The National Interest noted in a December 2025 report.

The fallout has included the cancellation of contracts for large space projects, such as the ExoMars rover mission.

Russia’s realignment has been strongly focused on China.

Though there are gaps in technological compatibility, China supplies crucial components, and the two nations are committed to collaborating on space projects, such as a planned nuclear-powered base near the moon’s south pole.

Much like China, Russia has moved its civilian and military space programs closer together, aligning the industry with national security priorities.

This restructuring has focused resources on priority projects, but has left the space sector with technological and financial shortfalls and obstacles.

Chronic dependence, decay

Despite its strategic pivots, the Russian space industry is facing a deepening crisis, with intelligence reports indicating the Kremlin has become "critically dependent" on foreign Earth remote sensing data, primarily from China.

Faced with budget shortfalls caused by losses in international launch contracts and commercial revenue, Roscosmos has turned to aggressive commercialization in a bid to generate revenue.

This includes new legislation that allows advertising on spacecraft and the issuance of corporate bonds, which is part of a wider Russian plan to issue nearly $81 billion in domestic bonds in 2026 to cover wartime deficits.

While these measures may help in some part, analysts say, they fail to address systemic issues in the space industry.

These include a drop in manpower, low workforce productivity and a lack of progress Russia has taken various steps to distract from.

Obfuscation efforts include responding to present-day failures by highlighting Soviet-era successes, as with the 2023 Luna-25 spacecraft crash response, and blaming external rather than systemic factors for various technical failures.

They include leaning heavily on China to carry forward joint programs such as the proposed International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), giving the illusion that Russia is a more consequential player than it can rightfully claim to be.

Roscosmos this year began to centralize all data control, forcing Russian government agencies to pay for satellite imagery that was previously more accessible, in a move seen as a redistribution of scarce resources.

Meanwhile, the number of Russian space launches has declined for two consecutive years as infrastructure modernization is repeatedly postponed.

There also is a growing risk that Russian satellite operators will be displaced by cheaper, more advanced Chinese products, effectively turning Russia into a junior partner in the Sino-Russian alliance.

Absence of accountability

Roscosmos enterprise Energia head Igor Maltsev has acknowledged serious failures such as rising debt, project delivery, and an absence of institutional accountability, according to an August 2025 Defense Express report.

In a statement, Maltsev noted that "in recent years, promises on key projects have remained unfulfilled, deadlines missed, and the company is burdened with multimillion-dollar debts."

"Interest payments are consuming the budget, processes are inefficient, and a large portion of the workforce has lost motivation and a sense of shared responsibility," he added.

"We need to stop lying to ourselves and others that everything is fine."

While the United States and its allies are advancing programs like Artemis, Russia and China are strengthening ties with emerging space powers.

This has effectively split the global space industry into two major ecosystems, according to The National Interest.

As its relations with the West break down, Russia has expanded its role in Africa, Asia and Latin America, through the provision of satellites and services.

These partnerships position the Kremlin to be a supplier for nations seeking space advancement, but without the political conditions attached to Western programs, such as accession to the US-led, multilateral Artemis Accords.

Despite Russia’s adaptive changes, its ambitions are weakened by economic stagnation, reliance on outdated satellites, and limited access to newer technologies.

The Kremlin has displayed resilience in the face of powerful penalties, but its long-term competitiveness will require it to modernize infrastructure, reduce technological dependence, and develop or maintain committed partnerships.